In 2024, housing market experts predict a nearly 1% decrease in mortgage rates, potentially lowering the average from 6.6% to as little as 5.75%. This reduction could translate to approximately $200 in monthly savings for buyers on a median-priced home. Recent data from Freddie Mac shows a drop to 6.6%, the lowest since May 2023, with expectations of rates falling below 6% by year-end.
Various projections align with this outlook:
- Lawrence Yun from the National Association of Realtors anticipates 30-year fixed rates stabilizing at 6%.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates at 6.1% by the end of 2024.
- Bank rate is optimistic, predicting average rates of 5.75% by year-end.
For those making a 20% down payment on a $431,000 median-priced home, monthly mortgage costs could decrease by up to $190, potentially saving around $68,000 on interest over the entire mortgage period.
Despite this positive development, home prices are expected to rise in 2024, with varying growth rates by region. It’s crucial for potential buyers to assess their personal finances and regional market conditions when considering a home purchase.
The Federal Reserve’s shift away from tight monetary policy is a contributing factor to the anticipated decline in mortgage rates. Fannie Mae’s market outlook suggests a continued moderation in rates, reaching 5.5% by the end of 2025.
Real Estate Market to Recover:
As rates relax, the housing market is expected to rebound, with more homeowners entering the market and increased inventory for buyers. Fannie Mae has revised its 2024 forecast, predicting higher total home sales, increased housing starts, and a 3.2% rise in its home price index.
While affordability challenges may persist, the easing of mortgage rates is poised to stimulate the existing home sales market in 2024, overcoming obstacles from the previous year’s lock-in effects.
The anticipated drop in mortgage rates in 2024 is not only good news for prospective homebuyers but also a significant catalyst for the housing market’s recovery. As rates continue to ease, the “lock-in” effect that restrained the market in previous years is gradually loosening its grip. Many homeowners, who had opted to stay on the sidelines during the era of rising rates, are now being enticed back into the market by the more favorable borrowing conditions.
Market Stats:
This resurgence in homeowner activity is expected to bring a much-needed boost to the supply-starved market, providing relief for buyers struggling to find suitable options. Fannie Mae’s revised forecast for 2024 reflects this positive trend, with an increase in the annualized rate of total home sales to 4.96 million, up from the previous estimate of 4.79 million. Housing starts are also expected to see a rise to 1.37 million, compared to the earlier projection of 1.28 million.
