(SOURCE- The New York Times)
Japan’s economic woes deepen as weak domestic consumption triggers an unexpected contraction, pushing the nation into a recession and causing it to slip from the world’s third-largest economy to the fourth, trailing behind Germany. The Cabinet Office revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last quarter of 2023. This follows a previous quarter’s contraction of 3.3%, meeting the technical definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of economic decline.
Japan GDP Contraction Below Market Forecasts
The sharp decline in GDP caught economists off guard, falling well below market expectations. Reuters’ poll of economists anticipated a growth of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter for the October to December period. However, all major domestic demand categories, including consumer spending, posted negative figures. Only external demand, represented by exports of goods and services, made a positive contribution, underscoring the significant impact of weak domestic demand.
Weak Yen and Natural Disasters Amplify Economic Challenges
Private consumption, accounting for half of Japan’s economy, faced a notable annualized decline of 0.9% in the fourth quarter. Rising prices for food, fuel, and other goods were cited as the primary challenge for Japanese consumers. Neil Newman, a strategist at Japanmacro, highlighted the weak yen as a contributing factor, as the country imports 94% of its base energy requirements and 63% of its food. The yen’s 6.6% decline against the US dollar since the start of the year compounds the cost of living challenge. Newman also pointed out the negative impact of a recent natural disaster, the Sea of Japan earthquake in January, which disrupted normal economic activities as people restrained spending during times of crisis.
The unexpected economic downturn underscores the fragile nature of Japan’s recovery. As the nation grapples with the aftermath of a devastating earthquake and rising living costs, policymakers face the challenge of restoring consumer confidence and stimulating economic growth in the face of formidable headwinds.
Consumer spending in Japan faces the dual challenge of rising costs and a weakening yen, exacerbating the economic downturn. With Japan heavily reliant on imports for both energy and food, the 6.6% decline in the yen against the US dollar amplifies the cost of living for its citizens. Neil Newman of Japanmacro emphasizes that private consumption, a crucial economic driver, was notably weak, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline. This decline is particularly concerning as it deviates from market expectations, raising questions about the resilience of economic recovery.
